We recently changed our base case for the US economy, which now calls for a US recession.
In The News
This report is the tip of the iceberg in terms of bad economic data as the coronavirus (COVID-19) closures cascade through the US economy.
Executive Summary: A global recession is unavoidable and it will extend to the US. The depth will be influenced by the virus containment efforts, and the duration will be shaped by monetary and fiscal stimulus.
The Federal Reserve stepped in to help the commercial paper market and overnight lending to investment banks.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) took four immediate actions in reaction to economic risks from the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
US payrolls added 273,000 in February, well ahead of consensus expectations, while the unemployment rate drifted lower to 3.5%.