Will we have a trade truce or will there be consequences? The truth probably lies somewhere in between but it is important to note that consequences can contain both positive and negative elements.
The Control-Alt-Delete command on computer keyboards was invented by IBM as a way to reboot a computer when it freezes up. There is no simple button that can reset a market or portfolio when markets freeze up like they did in 2018.
In this abbreviated holiday version we briefly recap some of the key themes we discussed this year before setting our sights on the year ahead.
“Slow steaming” is a term used in the shipping industry when a ship slows its speed to conserve energy. To adjust its course, a ship can always rely on fuel reserves to reach its next port. Similarly, the Fed continues to conserve its energy by raising rates, while economic growth is strong, to prepare for the next economic slowdown when rate cuts may be required.
Upcoming midterm elections, trade policy, the Fed and fears of recession are distractions that leap off the headlines. Lost in translation, however, is a U.S. economy growing above trend with continuing signs of acceleration.
They say records were made to be broken. By one measure, on Aug. 22nd the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed the record set during the dot-com era for the longest bull market without a 20% correction.