December 15, 2020
Prepared by Michael J. Skordeles, Director, US Macro Strategist, Truist Advisory Services, Inc. Material we present here is based upon information available on the date of publication. We believe our data is reliable. However, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. We solicit no action based upon this material. Opinions we express are our judgment as of this date and may change.
Commonly used abbreviations: mo/mo (Month-over-month), yr/yr (Year-over-year), YTD (year-to-date), K (Thousands), M (Millions), Advanced (A), P (Preliminary), F (Final)
Trend: Good, Bad or Neutral indicators are relative to whether it is favorable for economic growth.
DATA PROVIDED BY CORRESPONDING SOURCES:
Bureau of Economic Analysis: Gross Domestic Product (inflation– and seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of change from prior quarter), Personal Income and Personal Spending (Personal Income and Outlays)
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims (Jobless Claims), Employment Situation (Monthly Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core CPI (all items less food and energy), Producer Price Index (PPI, total final demand), Core PPI (final demand for goods less food and energy), Nonfarm Productivity
US Census Bureau: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, Business Inventories, New Housing Sales, Starts, and Permits, Durable Goods Orders
National Association of Realtors: Existing Home Sales
Institute for Supply Management (ISM): Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Report(s) on Business
Federal Reserve: Federal Funds rate
Bloomberg: Consensus figures, 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield, 10-Year AAA GO Muni Yield, 30‐Yr Fixed Mortgage (national average), University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment Index (Surveys of Consumers)
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model mimics the methods used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to estimate real GDP growth, and aggregates statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP.
Leading and lagging indicator designations based on parameters developed by The Conference Board.
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