Economic Commentary provides a take on the most recent U.S. economic events, indicator releases, and policy developments. These events are put into context of our projections and market views to see the practical implications of the economic moves.
Understanding this US recession, why it’s different this time, and the shape of the coming economic recovery
Recent actions by global central banks have reignited the debate about whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be next to implement a negative policy rate.
The historic April job losses of 20.5 million and spike in the unemployment rate up to 14.7% were painful, mirroring the lockdown of the US economy.
The COVID-19 lockdowns have pushed up initial jobless claims over the past six weeks to roughly 30 million nationwide.
The US economy contracted 4.8% in the first quarter, worse than the consensus expectations of -3.9%.
Crude oil’s supply and demand imbalance is unlikely to resolve quickly. In the near term, we expect further price swings and price declines as uncertainties persist.