Economic Commentary provides a take on the most recent U.S. economic events, indicator releases, and policy developments. These events are put into context of our projections and market views to see the practical implications of the economic moves.
We see the jobs report as showing good and bad indicators for the economy.The good news is weekly jobless claims have likely peaked.
Executive Summary: US payrolls shed 701,000 workers in March, while the unemployment rate jumped to 4.4%.
Job-related data will continue to deteriorate; however, the temporary income replacement―which is a key feature of the CARES Act―is likely underappreciated.
In light of our recent recession call, we address a variety of follow up questions we have fielded recently.
We recently changed our base case for the US economy, which now calls for a US recession.
This report is the tip of the iceberg in terms of bad economic data as the coronavirus (COVID-19) closures cascade through the US economy.